Abstract
V.S. Bondar, A.V. Fursa*, M.Ya. Gumentyk and I.V. Svystunova
Purpose: The purpose is to clarify the concept of "climate" and to reveal the essence of its modern changes, as well as the role of real processes and factors that cause warming in their cause-effect relationships.
Methods: The following research methods have been used: induction and deduction – for the formulation of the corresponding paradigm, taking into account the achievements of domestic and foreign scientists; systematic analysis – in determining existing ideas and hypotheses on climate; synthesis – to define concepts and forecasts on this topic; expert estimates - for the study of global temperatures and abnormal precipitation; statistical – for processing data on the influence of a number of factors on climate change; forecasting – according to indicators of air temperature, precipitation and other climatic elements.
Results: It is established that the catastrophic consequences of climate warming on planet Earth in the scientific community and civil society are clearly exaggerated. Especially in providing exclusivity to the anthropogenic impact on climate change in such manifestations as an increase in population, reduction of cultivated areas, the disappearance of forests, the spread of deserts, as well as air pollution and even “loss of the genetic basis of the plant and animal world”, etc., which has a negative psychological effect on people in anticipation of apocalyptic consequences. At the same time, the centuries-old regularity of regular cyclic alternation of warm and cold periods in the history of the Earth caused by a change in the activity of the Sun under the influence of a galactic magnetic field, orbital cycles of the planets and the gravitational component of the Universe is not sufficiently taken into account. The position on the exclusive role of CO2 in creating the greenhouse effect is controversial, whereas it is the result of the combined action of not only CO2, but mainly water vapor, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexachlorides, aerosols, which occupy 1% of the volume, and CO2 only 0.035%. In addition, increasing CO2 concentrations do not necessarily lead to warming (mid-twentieth century). This applies to the «destruction» of the ozone layer. The fact of atmospheric pollution by emissions of volcanoes, ingredients of natural metabolic processes of biological and chemical origin in the ocean and on land, endogenous processes inside the Earth, etc., is also underestimated. A number of climatologists have proved that the current "global warming" is residual from the last spike in solar activity, formed due to a decrease in negative winter temperatures over the past 40-50 years, and should change with another cooling with a minimum in 2065.
Conclusions: The causes of climate warming in recent decades, mainly associated with the activities of the Sun, ocean, land and atmosphere, are substantiated; the concept of “climate” has been improved, the forecast of its changes in the near future is substantiated - until 2065. The fallacy of the statement about the effect of overpopulation of the planet Earth on food shortages, the controversy of the hypothesis about the exclusive role of CO2, the fallacy of the statements about the role of the Earth’s internal heat in climate change, water shortage are proved, etc