Complex Evaluation Of The Number Dynamics Of Colonial Waterbird Communities (the Case Of Some Islands Of Sivash Region)
Ð?. V. Matsyura
The problem of the mathematical analysis of the number dynamics of the nesting waterbirds for the islands of the south of Ukraine is examined. The algorithm of the evaluation of changes in the number of island birds is proposed. Data of the long-term monitoring of the number of birds were analyzed according to this algorithm. The necessity of the implementation of the statistical indices together with the graphic representation of island birds’ turnover is proved. The trends of population dynamics are determined for the key species. The discussed procedure of the complex evaluation is proposed for the management planning of the island bird species and their habitats. The performed analysis of the number dynamics of the key-stone breeding island birds showed that, with the exception of little tern, the population status and the prognosis of number are sufficiently favorable. From the data of long-term monitoring we came up with the conclusion about the existence of island habitats with carrying capacity to maintain the additional number of breeding birds. In the case of unfavorable conditions like strengthening of anthropogenic press, concurrent interrelations, deficiency of feed resources or drastic reduction of breeding biotopes, the birds due to turnover are capable to successfully react even without reducing their number and breeding success. The extinction rate of the breeding bird species from the island sites directly correlates with the number of breeding species. For the species with equal abundance, the extinction probability is higher for birds, whose numbers are unstable and characterized by significant fluctuations. This testifies the urgency of the constant monitoring and analysis of the number dynamics of breeding bird species in region. The suggested procedure of analysis is recommended for drawing up of management plans and performing of prognoses of number of breeding island bird species. More detail analysis with use of quantitative data on breeding birds will be the next step of the study of the island birds’ turnover. The results of the analysis of population dynamics assist to count the minimal population size for the colonization of new islands and stable existence of bird communities. Detailed analysis will allow to estimate the effect of competition on population and to determine the competitive variability inside and between the species breeding on islands.