Probability of Radon cancer occurrence in Rivne city residents (Ukraine), calculation by WISMUT and Radon-2014 models


O.O. Lebed, L.V. Klymenko, V.S. Trotsyuk, V.A. Hulchuk, A.V. Lysytsya

The aim of the study: Inhaling 222Rn present in the premises on the part of the population may provoke the development of cancer of the respiratory tract. This study assessed the risk of morbidity from lung cancer and the mortality of residents of Rivne, Ukraine, due to exposure to internal radioactive irradiation.

Methods: The biological model of the human respiratory tract was used and, based on it; the physical models of the additional relative risk of morbidity from lung cancer of the population of urban areas due to Radon were constructed.

The constructed models include the model BEIR VI in two variants (TSE/AGE/DUR and TSE/AGE/WL), models WISMUT and Radon-2014.

Results: The geometrical mean of volume activity VA of Radon in the premises of the city of Rivne we measured equals 200 Bq/m3. It corresponds to the value of the average exposure to Radon equal to 1.392 WLM/year. In the framework of the model TSE/AGE/DUR, it is determined that residing in such the premises on the part of the population of the city of Rivne throughout life (70 years) results in the 16% increase in the risk of morbidity from lung cancer. If the models TSE/AGE/WL, WISMUT, and Radon-2014 are used, the morbidity equals respectively 25%, 10%, and 7%. 

Conclusion: This research is the first estimation of the risk of morbidity and mortality from cancers of trachea, bronchi, and lungs due to exposure to Radon in the city of Rivne performed in the frameworks of the models WISMUT and Radon-2014. The quantity of the deaths of the residents of the city of Rivne with lung cancer due to exposure to Radon in the premises of the city depends on the uncertain dependence of the effect on the dose and ranges from 5 to 128 persons per year for the males and from 1 to 23 people per year for females.  This is from 3 to 64% of all lung cancer deaths per year due to all causes during the study period for males and from 3 to 77% for females. Such the research should be extended to other regions of Ukraine as the Radon problem is a matter of serious concern to the European Community and the World Health Organization.
Keywords: Radon; Additional relative risk; Exposition; Lung cancer



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