Prognostication in plant protection. Review of the past, present and future of nonliner dynamics method


S.V. Stankevych, Ye.M. Biletskyj, I.V. Zabrodina, M.D. Yevtushenko, H.V. Baidyk, I.P. Lezhenina, M.O. Filatov, L.Ya. Sirous, D.D. Yushchuk, V.O. Melenti, O.A. Molchanova, L.V. Zhukova, L.V. Golovan, I.V. Klymenko

By carrying out a theoretical synthesis of the information on the regularities of population dynamics of some insect pests of agricultural plants and based on the past and present the authors have analysed the dynamics of many years in the number of the insect populations. An attempt to determine the presence of synchronism of outbreaks of the insects’ mass reproduction with the years of sharp changes in the solar activity has been made; the relationship between the changes in the number of the insects and meteorological and heliographic factors has been analysed. An analysis of the dynamics of the sun pest reproduction taking into account the duration of sunshine on the materials of one of the outbreaks (local population) in the Kupiansk district of the Kharkiv region showed the unreliability of this index as a predicate of the prognosis; and the reproduction rate of the local population of the sun pest does not change depending on the duration of the solar radiance. It is determined that this principle is also unsuitable for forecasting the dynamics in the number of this pest. The linear differential equations, in which not only the meteorological factors but also the indices of the solar activity (global factor) were used as variables were unsuitable for prognostication the dynamics in the number of the insects. The examples listed in the article confirm the fundamental regularity, namely the polycyclic dynamics of various natural systems and the synchronism in their development. The synchronization is inevitable because all objects of inanimate and living nature consist of the same chemical elements, and the conservation and conversion of energy is universal in nature. Based on the methodology of the cyclic dynamics it is possible to develop the algorithms for prognostication the regular mass reproduction of harmful insects.

Key words: population dynamics, population cycles, insect number, synergetic approach, nonlinear dynamics, prognostication, solar activity

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