Table Curve Software And Prognosis Of Birds??? Population

Abstract

M. V. Matsyura, Yu. I. Vadchenko

The methods we suggested are widely accessible and can be applied for processing of field research data. For design the own data from 1993-1999 of bird counts of island communities were used; data for previous period are got from the literature. For calculation of regression equations for dynamics of quantity the software "Table Curve" was applied. The first step for the creation of models was spectral analysis of dynamics of birds’ quantity. During the analysis the five-year period of fluctuations was determined for most of species that is characterized by highest significance. For the presentation of graphic scenario of number dynamics the time series analysis was done. By means of automatic analysis for every species an optimal trend was determined. It Is obvious that for the determination of pattern of cyclic changes of island bird communities more detailed analysis of climatic terms, hydrological mode and epizootic processes is needed. The turnover ability of birds together with strengthening of anthropogenic influence complicate analysis of bird number dynamics; for a thorough analysis some new variables are needed which describe the trophic relations of birds and age-related structure of population. Without regard to statistical significance of the results, our models are preliminary and can not be used as absolute forecasting tools. Nevertheless, our scenarios could be recommended for the incorporation in management or action plans.

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