The Spatio-temporal dynamics and predictive modeling of land use change relation with biodiversity conservation at Aboudjokopé community forest scale in Togo
Abstract
Amenyekpo Afi Ida*, Kombate Bimare, Folega Fousséni, Souandja Sinandja, Wala Kperkouma, Batawila Komlan
A study of vegetation dynamics in the Aboudjokopé Community Forest (ACF) between 2000 and 2023 revealed significant changes in land-use units, linked to anthropogenic activities and conservation efforts. This study is a contribution to the sustainable management of natural habitats in Togo. Landsat - Greenest Pixel Yearly (Greenest-Pixel) images were used to analyze the evolution of the main vegetation formations, including savannahs, agroforestry parks, fallows and crops, forests, human settlements and wetlands. Simulation of land-use units to 2049 were carried out using the ?Cellular Automata Simulation? model of the MOLUSCE extension of QGIS 2.18 software. The dynamics of land-use units reveal that in 2000, savannahs covered 87.43% (640 ha). However, they have undergone a regressive dynamic to reach 58.79% (431 ha) in 2023. This decline in savannah has mainly benefited agroforestry parks, fallow land and crops, which grew significantly until 2009, reaching 54.49% (400 ha). Forest ecosystems, on the other hand, represented 6.56% (48 ha) in 2000, with a gradual increase to 39.84% (292 ha) in 2023, suggesting a gradual rehabilitation of forest areas. Simulated projections for 2049 predict a continued reduction in savannahs and human settlements in favor of forest formations. This study can initially be used as a source of information for planning community governance tools. However, further analysis of the contribution of potential sources to local climate mitigation is required.